គំនិតហេដ្ឋារចនាសម្ព័ន្ធអាហ្វ្រិករបស់ចិនសម្រាប់ប្រទេសបារាំងអាល្លឺម៉ង់«នឹងត្រូវបរាជ័យ»

Governmental cooperation suggested by President Xi Jinping faces obstacles, according to Johns Hopkins University researchers

Companies from the three nations do cooperate, but past attempts to formalise ties suggest Xi’s idea will not proceed, they say

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s proposal for France and Germany to join a “quad” to develop Africa may not work, scholars have said.

But German and French companies will always find ways of working with those from China in Africa even without the backing of their governments, they added.

Researchers at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) said that official cooperation between the countries to build infrastructure in Africa would not work any time soon, with past efforts suggesting it was “doomed to fail”.

In July, during an online meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron and outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Xi said he welcomed European investment in Africa and invited them to join the Initiative on Partnership for Africa’s Development, which is spearheaded by China.

Xi proposed that the three countries work together on infrastructure projects in Africa through Beijing’s transcontinental infrastructure strategy the Belt and Road Initiative “to create more opportunities for common development”.

Deborah Brautigam, director of SAIS’ China Africa Research Initiative, said she did not expect to hear much more about the Chinese proposal, but “we do expect to hear more business cooperation among Chinese and French and German firms, as in the past”.

Brautigam and two other researchers at the university, Lucas Engel and Reed Piercey, said in an analysis published by Canberra-based East Asia Forum that “while business cooperation makes strategic sense for all four parties, little is likely to materialise on the ‘Africa quad’”. The analysis said that “past attempts to formalise informal ties have failed” and “Xi’s proposal will likely suffer the same fate”.

“I wish we could be more optimistic about the official cooperation, but we aren’t,” Brautigam told the South China Morning Post.

Xi’s appeal was seen as a political response to the Group of Seven’s Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative, launched weeks earlier as a counterbalance to China’s belt and road plan, which has funded railways, highways, ports and power plants in Africa, Asia and parts of Europe. The US and some European countries have accused Beijing of burdening African countries with loans they can never repay.

The B3W initiative is the brainchild of US President Joe Biden and aims by 2035 to invest US$40 trillion in developing nations, including in Africa, where China is the largest financier and infrastructure contractor. The G7 framed it as “a values-driven, high-standard and transparent infrastructure partnership led by major democracies to help narrow the US$40-plus trillion infrastructure need in the developing world”.

After July’s call with Xi, Merkel called his proposal a “positive development”.

“We will continue talks on how far we can cooperate and how far there are differences,” she said at the time, adding that collaboration could be coordinated through the Compact with Africa programme, launched by Germany during its presidency of the G20 in 2017.

The analysts said that China had worked with France and Germany previously in the form of a contractor-supervisor relationship.

“African governments appreciate the blend of Chinese prices and European quality, encouraging German companies like Gauff, Lahmeyer and STEAG, as well as French companies like Socotec, Solaria and Egis, to supervise Chinese contractors,” the scholars wrote.

The analysis said that German firms and banks had approached Chinese entities to seal deals that would allow them to earn from the belt and road, while French companies had formed joint ventures with the Chinese.

“French and German businesses operating in Africa have recognised the need to find ways of working with the Chinese if they want to remain active on the continent,” Brautigam and team said.

“French-Chinese and German-Chinese business partnerships show no signs of slowing down, but Xi Jinping’s government-driven ‘Africa quad’ initiative faces numerous obstacles. German officials hesitate to lend their name to projects they perceive as non-compliant with their own environmental and social standards.”

The researchers said German public opinion on China was also shifting and the idea of Germany working with China could face opposition from a new coalition government. Although France had in the past taken steps to cooperate with China, it had never worked well, they said.

After China and France made a joint declaration on cooperation in developing markets in 2015, the two countries established the Third Market Cooperation Fund – “but France pledged only US$2 billion to China’s US$10 billion”, the analysis said.

“The discrepancy reflected a lack of enthusiasm among French businesses about government direction. France’s largest employer federation, the Movement of the Enterprises of France, rejected official Sino-French cooperation in 2016. The fund never became a reality.”

Official cooperation on infrastructure was unlikely to succeed, Engel said, adding: “I also think it is unlikely that Germany will take steps to actively discourage cooperation between firms. Germany is heavily reliant on its export sector and China is the second most important destination for German exports.

“If Germany were to oppose its businesses’ partnerships with Chinese actors in Africa or elsewhere, this could have larger implications for the German economy.”

Brautigam’s team said that whether or not Xi’s idea were to come to fruition, private French, German and Chinese entities “will continue to explore new methods of competition and cooperation in Africa”.

SCMP