តើ WTO អាចបម្រើអព្ភូតហេតុបានទេ នៅពេលរដ្ឋមន្ត្រីពាណិជ្ជកម្មជួប?

The mood music from Washington may have improved amid a growing imperative to reach global agreements on trade. But decades of deadlock and procrastination leave most economists sceptical over what the 12th Ministerial Conference can deliver

Reports of the death of world trade, and in particular of the World Trade Organization, have been greatly exaggerated – perhaps in spite of the best efforts of former US president Donald Trump and his trade team led by Robert Lighthizer.

But the organisation faces a critical test of its relevance in the next two months. The imperative for cooperation on pandemic recovery – in vaccine distribution, safe travel rules and supply chain reform – and on the climate crisis, have lent urgency to the need for multilateral coordination when WTO ministers meet at the 12th Ministerial Conference (MC12) in Geneva at the end of November.

As Australia’s WTO ambassador George Mina said recently: “MC12 is not only an opportunity to deliver momentum but it is an opportunity for the group to present what we are doing to the world.”

Many would argue that, in the quarter century since the WTO’s founding in 1995, the fruits of its labour – such as the Trade Facilitation Agreement, a deal agreed in 2013 aimed at reducing customs bureaucracy – have been embarrassingly meagre.

Reversals and backsliding include the collapse of the ambitious 2008 Doha Round of trade negotiations, and the United States’ gutting of the dispute settlement process that enabled economies to settle trade-related arguments. Efforts to liberalise farm trade and services, and agree on common approaches to subsidies, have stagnated for two decades.

Perhaps the WTO’s greatest achievement – or biggest mistake, depending on your point of view – was to agree to China’s membership in 2001, and to oversee the country’s integration into the global trading system.

This has generated crippling dilemmas at the heart of the WTO: how to reconcile China’s very different economic model with those of the market economies of its founding members, and how to open the door to China as a rule-making partner, rather than a rule-taking member.

As WTO director general Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala travels the world, encouraging progress ahead of the summit, the innocents among us may sense a mood of optimism.

This has been fuelled by a fluttering interest in re-engagement from US President Joe Biden, as he tries to affirm that “America is back” after the previous administration’s counterproductive retreat into bullying and bilateralism.

Most notable was the recent visit by US Trade Representative Katherine Tai to the WTO headquarters in Geneva, the first such visit by America’s top trade official since 2015. “Trade – and the WTO – can be a force for good that encourages a race to the top and addresses global challenges as they arise,” Tai said.

She then warned: “The organisation has rightfully been accused of existing in a ‘bubble’, insulated from reality and slow to recognise global developments. That must change […] If you will listen to us, we will listen to you, and let’s start the reform process from there.”

The mood music from Washington may have improved. The imperative has grown to reach a number of global agreements on trade. But decades of deadlock and procrastination leave most trade economists sceptical over just how much MC12 can deliver. Not least, Tai shows no sign of returning to the negotiating table on restoring the critically important dispute settlement process.

Instead, she called in Geneva for progress on pandemic preparedness and resilience, WTO reform, transparency of government support, and environmental sustainability. Substantive progress at MC12 on even half of this menu would be a very big deal.

So, what outcomes can we expect?

On pandemic recovery, the most tangible result could be an agreement for pharmaceutical companies to waive intellectual property rights on vaccines, so that they can be distributed cheaply across the developing world. The US supports this, but the European Union, Switzerland and Britain are opposed.

There is also a need for agreements on supply chain resiliency to ensure we see no repeat of last year’s bottlenecks on personal protective equipment and other medical supplies. Ministers must also examine the massive supply chain dislocations that have emerged as economies begin to recover.

Unfortunately, these urgent issues are all so recent that few governments have yet to even discuss a common approach. So little of substance can be expected from MC12.

So too on climate-related issues, such as fossil fuel subsidies, carbon taxes and policy support for green technologies. Expectations on such issues will be set at the COP26 climate summit to be held in Glasgow from October 31 to November 12. Little of substance can be expected so quickly after that.

Most detailed hopes for MC12 are linked to what Geneva’s trade policy wonks call Joint Statement Initiatives, because these are exempted from the consensus rules that often hold initiatives hostage to just one or two of the WTO’s 164 member economies.

Foremost is a deal eliminating fisheries subsidies, which has been under discussion for many years. Officials call it “a critical test [ …] for the credibility of our organisation”.

Another Joint Statement Initiative close to agreement is on rules governing international e-commerce. This has been high on Okonjo-Iweala’s agenda. The problem is that calls “to intensify efforts” have been a hallmark of statements and press releases for more than 20 years with little to show.

A final key marker for success at MC12 will be for ministers to emerge without full-blown conflict over China’s state-enterprise economy, its Made in China 2025 industrial policy that underpins subsidies and incentives across the economy, and its lack of transparency on many trade rules and practices.

WTO’s “audit” of China’s trade practices – the dull and detailed 206-page trade policy review released last week – provides powerful empirical support for the progress that China has made over the past 20 years and miraculously ducks the controversies that have, for the past five years, so soured US-China trade relations.

It will be similarly miraculous if ministers attending MC12 can do the same, but we can live in hope.

SCMP