តើអ្នកណានឹងក្លាយជានាយករដ្ឋមន្ត្រីបន្ទាប់របស់ចិន? ការប្រជុំសំខាន់ៗអាចផ្តល់តម្រុយ

 Economic and diplomatic problems create bumps for Xi's ambitions

The biggest question to be answered in this week's high-profile Chinese Communist Party meeting will likely not be who is being set up to succeed President Xi Jinping, but who will be the next second in command.

The closely watched, four-day sixth plenary session of the party's 19th Central Committee kicked off Monday in Beijing, where it is widely believed Xi will lay the groundwork for realizing his third term in power, and give high positions to members of his inner circle.

But no one in the current Politburo Standing Committee, the top decision-making body, is seen as a likely successor to Xi. If the Chinese leader decides against promoting a person who could fulfill that role to the Standing Committee, that would give him the groundwork needed to serve a third term as the Communist Party's general secretary at the upcoming party congress next fall.

Xi has pointedly shied away from deciding on a likely successor during his years at the top, but other plum positions appear to be opening up for his closest aides, allowing him to shore up his power in the top party ranks..

Shanghai Party Secretary Li Qiang and Guangdong Province Party Secretary Li Xi are set to be transferred to Beijing for top national leadership roles following the plenary session, according to a Friday article in the Hong Kong newspaper Ming Pao.

The report did not elaborate on their next roles. However, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will retire from his current position in March 2023. Many see either Li Qiang or Li Xi being installed first as a vice premier and later take over from Li Keqiang.

Hu Chunhua, one of the four sitting vice premiers, is well qualified to become the next premier. But Hu is also regarded as a standard bearer for the Communist Youth League, a faction that Xi has largely sidelined due to their solidarity.

Because Hu is said to be relatively distant from Xi, it is likely that the Chinese president is working to promote his close allies in an effort to seal him out of the premier's slot.

This week's plenary session will update the party's achievements and official history. Only two such "historical resolutions" have been passed in the past: one under Mao Zedong and another under Deng Xiaoping. Many predict the next historical resolution will emphasize a new era shepherded by Xi. In fact, one Communist Party insider said it "will be devoted to glorifying Xi."

According to many observers, the historical resolution will contain a call to advance common prosperity, which was first mentioned by Mao. Xi looks up to Mao, the founding leader of the People's Republic. The resolution is expected to contain language insinuating a lengthy control of government to attain goals set for 2035.

On the other hand, it is widely believed that Xi will distance himself from Deng, the supreme leader who pushed through reforms and open-door policies.

As Xi moves to flex his muscles and consolidate power, China is experiencing problems both at home and abroad, in the economy and diplomacy.

The national economy is showing further signs of slowing down. The gross domestic product for the third quarter grew 4.9% from a year earlier in real terms, down from a 7.9% gain in the second quarter.

Finances at Chinese enterprises have worsened due to high material costs, which have weighed down investments. And the restrictions on movement designed to combat resurgent coronavirus outbreaks have chilled consumption.

Furthermore, the drama surrounding property giant China Evergrande Group is starting to cloud the domestic real estate market, which had been one of the main drivers of growth.

Meanwhile, Xi's government has clamped down on cram schools serving elementary and middle-school students. But a growing number of families are silently rebelling against an agenda that interferes with child rearing.

"This will only widen the disparity between households that can secretly hire expensive private tutors and the rest," said a man in his 30s who works for a government organization. "I'm against it."

On the foreign policy front, attitudes toward China have worsened as a result of Beijing's "wolf warrior diplomacy," the aggressive stance adopted by diplomats under Xi. Because of the quest to become a global power, China is becoming increasingly unable to put forth a flexible response.

In addition, China's Belt and Road cross-border infrastructure initiative has been subject to accusations that it forces developing nations into debt traps.

Xi's administration appears to be especially flummoxed by Taiwan. The more China ramps up military pressure on the island, the more its independence-minded President Tsai Ing-wen draws international attention, turning up the heat against Beijing from the international community.

Not only has the U.S. become more explicit in its involvement with Taiwan, but the European Union recently sent members of the European Parliament to their first official visit of the island.

Xi is scheduled to hold a virtual summit with U.S. President Joe Biden later this year, but because of their sharp differences over human rights issues and Taiwan, no significant easing of tensions appears to be forthcoming.

China-Australia ties, which used to be favorable, have become decisively frayed after Beijing imposed a series of trade restrictions to punish Canberra for calling for an international investigation into the origins of the coronavirus.

The AUKUS security framework between Australia, the U.K. and the U.S., which went into force in September, includes providing nuclear submarine technology to Australia. For China, that has the makings of a nightmare scenario.

"The economy is slowing down, and diplomacy is not going smoothly," said a Chinese media insider. "Governance in the next year will become progressively difficult."

Nikkei Asia