ការវិភាគ៖ កិច្ចព្រមព្រៀងរុស្ស៊ីផ្តល់សំណាញ់សុវត្ថិភាពដល់លោក Xi សម្រាប់សកម្មភាពដ៏មានសក្តានុពលរបស់តៃវ៉ាន់

 Natural gas pipeline enables China to survive Western energy blockade

When Russian President Vladimir Putin met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week, he expressed his wholehearted support for the "'One China' principle," according to news releases from both sides.

The words also made their way into the joint statement issued after the meeting.

The "'One China' principle" is an expression Beijing uses, one that regards Taiwan as an inalienable part of China that is to be reunified one day.

It is not to be confused with the "'One China' policy" that the U.S. and many other countries adhere to and which is imbued with strategic ambiguity. The U.S., for instance, acknowledges "the Chinese position" that there is only one China but provides Taiwan with defensive arms with which to protect itself from a Chinese invasion.

In their telephone talks last August, Putin had promised to maintain the One China "policy."

Last week, his words went deeper. They were likely part of an effort by Putin to secure strong support from China over the Ukraine issue.

And so far, Xi has lent a helping hand to Putin's propaganda campaign on Ukraine.

"It is noteworthy that China has gone as far as opposing NATO expansion," a diplomatic source said. "At first glance, it looks like Putin has made a shrewd move. But the fact that Xi has gotten huge rewards should not be overlooked."

The source added that the rewards are connected to Xi's Taiwan calculations.

For years, China and Russia have played tug of war over who would be the older brother in their relationship.

When the People's Republic of China was founded, the Soviet Union was willing to provide assistance to the country. That was because Moscow considered Beijing its younger brother.

Now that China's economic power has risen, Russia has no choice but to accept its position as China's younger brother. Putin's acceptance of the expression "'One China' principle" symbolizes the reversal in the brothers' relations.

Putin attended the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics at the National Stadium in Beijing, commonly known as the "Bird's Nest." He sat in a seat reserved for distinguished guests, although technically, as the leader of a country sanctioned for systematic doping, Putin was banned from attending Olympic ceremonies.

His attendance was an exceptional case, based on an invitation from Xi. A photograph of a smiling Putin, giving thumbs-up from the Bird's Nest stands, was carried widely by Chinese state media.

Another important development at the Xi-Putin summit was a natural gas agreement under which Russia vowed to supply an additional 10 billion cu. meters of gas to China, to 48 billion cu. meters a year.

If this is realized, the volume of Russian natural gas supplied to China will balloon tenfold, compared with the volume of natural gas actually sent through a pipeline in 2020.

"This is a sophisticated energy strategy with an eye on war with Taiwan," a source familiar with Asian security noted.

If Putin's goal was to secure access to the huge Chinese market in case sales to Europe were to be shut off, Xi's goal was to gain cooperation in regard to the Taiwan issue, the analysis goes.

Xi has not ruled out the use of force to block Taiwan's independence.

If a battle actually broke out, the supply of oil and natural gas to China could be disrupted by Western economic sanctions. But the stable supply of energy resources from Russia by land would allow China to prevent its isolation.

China has had bitter experiences with electricity shortages stemming from its tough external strategy.

Relations between China and Australia deteriorated after Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent, international investigation into the origins of the novel coronavirus outbreak, which began in China.

When Australian coal stopped arriving at Chinese ports, the supply of electricity was widely affected. This was only half a year ago.

In their joint statement, Xi and Putin expressed serious concerns over a U.S.-U.K.-Australia security framework known as AUKUS. For China, a major consumer of oil and coal, a disruption to energy imports by sea represents an extremely realistic threat.

One analogy would be the "ABCD Line" that regulated the export of oil to Japan beginning in the second half of the 1930s.

The ABCD Line was a Japanese name for a series of embargoes against Japan carried out by America, Britain, China and the Dutch. 

In a desperate bid to survive, Japan launched a "southward advance" to Southeast Asia, an oil-producing region, and concluded a neutrality pact with the Soviet Union.

In recent years, Xi has pursued an economic structure that focuses on the domestic cycle. This includes an aversion to companies being connected to U.S. financial markets, exemplified by the postponement of Alibaba Group-affiliated Ant Group's dual listing in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

In a broad sense, these moves could also be interpreted to be part of the Xi administration's medium- and long-term strategy of biding its time and preparing to unfiy Taiwan.

Meanwhile, Japan will likely feel the impact of a Xi-Putin partnership. 

The China-Russia joint statement incorporates concerns about Japan's decision to release into the sea treated water from its crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

The move, led by China, stands in contrast to Taiwan's recent moves toward lifting a ban on food imports from Fukushima and four other Japanese prefectures.

China and Russia have been turning up the temperature on Japan. In October, naval vessels from both countries together passed through the Tsugaru Strait -- a narrow body of water that separates Hokkaido from Japan's main island of Honshu, and then through the Osumi Strait, which passes the tip of Japan's southernmost main island, connecting the East China Sea with the Pacific Ocean.

There have also been joint flights of Chinese and Russian warplanes in areas surrounding Japan.

Most crucially, there is a possibility that Russia will toughen its stance on the four islets north of Hokkaido known as the Northern Territories, which the Soviet Union occupied in the last days of World War II and Japan seeks to retrieve.

China's stance has long been to support Japan's call for the return of the islands. This has been consistent since Mao Zedong made it clear to a visiting delegation of Japan Socialist Party members in 1964, shortly before that year's Tokyo Olympics.

But China and the Soviet Union were locked in a fierce confrontation at the time. Now the fast-strengthening China-Russia partnership threatens to change the calculus.

Nikkei Asia