បទ​វិភាគ៖ អ៊ុយក្រែន​បង្កើត​គ្រោះ​ថ្នាក់​សម្រាប់​តៃវ៉ាន់ បទ​ឈប់​បាញ់​អូឡាំពិក ឬ​អត់?

As the U.S. focuses on Europe, China sees a host of options for fait accompli

On the very day that Russian leader Vladimir Putin attended the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games in Beijing's National Stadium, known as the "Bird's Nest," Russian troops crossed the border to launch a military operation.

No, this is not a scenario that might play out on Friday, when the Beijing Winter Olympics open, but what actually happened on Aug. 8, 2008, the opening day of the Beijing Summer Olympics. Russia's opponent was Georgia.

Fourteen years on, tensions are building on the Russian-Ukrainian border, where Russia has amassed a significant number of troops that look ready for battle.

For Ukraine, the Olympics conjure up bad memories. Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 came immediately after the closing ceremony of the Sochi Winter Games.

The Olympics, often described as "a festival of peace," are nevertheless closely intertwined with conflicts. Sometimes the schedule of the Olympics is the decisive factor of when wars begin.

The difference with 14 years ago is that no leader of a major country will be attending -- the result of a "diplomatic boycott" by countries such as the U.S. and the U.K.

Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2008 was serving as vice president and a member of the Politburo Standing Committee, the ruling Chinese Communist Party's top decision-making body. He saw up close the faces of foreign leaders such as then-U.S. President George W. Bush and Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda.

Relations with Japan have soured. On Tuesday, when China celebrated the Lunar New Year, Japan's lower house adopted a resolution expressing concern about the serious human rights situation in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, Tibet, the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Hong Kong.

While the lower house avoided naming China directly, its target came through loud and clear. Infringement on religious freedom and involuntary incarceration were also highlighted in the resolution.

There is no doubt that Xi, who took over from Hu Jintao as Chinese president, is to blame for the worsening of the international environment surrounding China.

As he aims for a third term as China's top leader at the party's next quinquennial national congress this autumn, he needs to regain lost ground.

On the international stage, foreign affairs analysts are watching to see if the strengthening China-Russia partnership has any impact on the Taiwan issue.

A NATO diplomatic source warned: "Russia's invasion of Ukraine may become a reality. We need to think about the impact it would have on China and Taiwan, despite being far away."

If tensions over Ukraine are prolonged, or if a war breaks out, China could gain an opening. The U.S. will not be in a favorable position if it had to implement a two-pronged strategy of dealing with Russia over Ukraine and with China over Taiwan.

In such a scenario, the U.S. would have no choice but to devote a large share of its energy to Ukraine and would be unable to focus fully on China.

Beijing has been on the offensive.

"The United States should stop interfering with the Olympic Winter Games Beijing 2022, stop playing with fire on the Taiwan issue and stop creating various anti-China small cliques," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a phone call on Jan. 27, using an interesting phrase.

The term "small clique" has a special meaning within the Chinese Communist Party. Groups that are up to no good and go against the party's Central Committee, with Xi Jinping as its core, are labeled "small cliques." They have been frequently targeted in Xi's signature anti-corruption campaign.

Wang also referred to the tense situation in Ukraine, saying, "We call on all parties to remain calm and refrain from inflaming tensions or hyping up the crisis."

Wang did not forget to defend Russia, stressing the need for Russia's "legitimate security concerns" to be "taken seriously and addressed." The words are likely a nod to Putin, ahead of his China visit.

Meanwhile, what Taiwan fears is the possibility of China using force against the self-ruled island, taking advantage of the turmoil in Ukraine.

Said an Asian diplomatic source familiar with the Taiwan situation, "Depending on future developments, the possibility of China taking risky military steps, including occupying Taiwan's remote islands, cannot be ruled out."

What Xi lacks is some tangible achievement over Taiwan, which bodes ill for him as he seeks a third term.

The "third resolution on history" that was adopted at the sixth plenary session of the party's 19th Central Committee in November trumpets a summit in 2015 between Xi and then Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou of the Chinese Nationalist Party as a Xi achievement.

But that achievement is quite dated. Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party is currently serving her second consecutive term.

"What is most required from a top leader of China is a visible achievement related to territory or national borders," a party source said.

Mao Zedong is the founding father of the People's Republic of China, and Deng Xiaoping is celebrated as the leader who won the handover of Hong Kong from Britain. Demarcating the long border with Russia, which had been a long-standing issue, was achieved during the eras of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao.

Naturally, Xi is in a hurry.

If the Biden administration is preoccupied with Ukraine and has no choice but to reduce the energy devoted to Taiwan-related issues, China may very well go on the offensive, even if that does not mean an invasion of Taiwan's main island. Various scenarios are conceivable.

One of the options is believed to be a blitz invasion of the Pratas Islands and other remote islands that are under Taiwan's control. The Pratas occupy a strategic position in the northern part of the South China Sea.

Whether any such action would immediately lead to an all-out war between the U.S. and China is unclear. But there is no doubt that the U.S. and its allies would impose strong sanctions, dealing a serious blow to China.

With China's economic growth slowing, the Xi administration cannot make such a decision casually.

In December, the U.N. General Assembly adopted a resolution calling for a truce during the Beijing Winter Olympics. The resolution was co-sponsored by 173 countries, including China, but the Quad members -- the U.S., Japan, Australia and India -- did not join.

A handshake between Xi and Putin at the Beijing Winter Olympics will serve as a reminder of the link between the Taiwan and Ukrainian issues. It will also symbolize the disturbing nature of current international politics.

As long as Olympic diplomacy exists as a tool for international politics, the politicization of the Olympics is inevitable.

nikkei