កំណើនផលិតផលក្នុងស្រុកសរុបរបស់ប្រទេសចិន គ្រាន់តែជាចំណុចកំពូលនៃផ្ទាំងទឹកកកសម្រាប់ទំហំនៃការរំខាន ចំនួននៃការខាតបង់ពីគោលនយោបាយសូន្យ-Covid-19

The longer that China maintains its zero-Covid-19 policy, there will be a greater sense of frustration and fatigue among the people

That policy has also led to a shift in priorities for China’s state apparatus from growth to control

China’s gross domestic product growth hit a two-year low in the second quarter, down to 0.4 per cent from a year earlier, showing the severe economic impact from draconian Covid-19 lockdowns implemented in Shanghai and other areas in the Yangtze River Delta economic zone during April and May.

The rigid enforcement of extended lockdowns, constant nucleic acid tests and broad travel restrictions has become a big burden on the economy and for hundreds of millions of people across mainland China, particularly those involved in the manufacturing, transport and logistics, catering, retail and tourism sectors.

Last quarter’s economic setback, however, is just the tip of the iceberg for the size of disruptions and amount of losses caused by the central government’s strong refusal to live with the coronavirus.

First and foremost, the longer that China maintains its zero-Covid-19 policy, there will be a greater sense of frustration and fatigue among the people. Continued implementation of quarantines and other strict coronavirus control measures has cast a shadow over how well the population can cope in the future. It shall be increasingly hard to justify those measures in light of how other countries have opened and learned to live with the coronavirus.

Increased economic stress could eventually stir up dissatisfaction and mistrust of state policies, despite current efforts to censor online criticism. While the working class is struggling to make ends meet, a growing number of high-net-worth individuals in mainland China are already seeking to leave the country because of Covid-19 restrictions and political uncertainties.

Secondly, the zero-Covid-19 policy has led to a shift in priorities for China’s state apparatus from growth to control. A largely pragmatic and pro-growth bureaucracy has turned into a vast organisation focused on tracking people’s movement. People could get locked up or put under house arrest, and their homes broken in or summarily disinfected on even the smallest legal or medical grounds. Despite Beijing’s pledge to give equal weight to pandemic controls and putting the economy back on track, implementation has always leaned towards control. Economic growth seems to be important only in theory.

Thirdly, China’s strict coronavirus control measures could deepen the country’s population crisis and plunging birth rate. While the government deserves plenty of credit for minimising the number of coronavirus casualties and in the process, protecting the most vulnerable in society, the economic damage caused by its strict zero-Covid-19 policy has made marriage and raising children unaffordable to many people across the country. China’s youth unemployment rate, for example, hit an all-time high of 19.3 per cent in June, official figures show.

While China has started to relax certain measures, the steps it has taken remain too small to make a difference. It is time for Beijing to seriously consider a much-needed exit from existing Covid-19 controls. This is for the sake of the economy, the people and the country’s future.

SCMP