ប្រទេសចិនតស៊ូក្នុងការស្វែងរកច្រកចេញដោយសុវត្ថិភាពសូន្យ-កូវីដ Zero-COVID

 Stringent rules weigh on economy but analysts warn of mass outbreaks

Shops have reopened in Guangzhou's Haizhu district after the southern Chinese city eased unpopular COVID-19 restrictions.   © AP

DALIAN, China/BEIJING -- The public backlash against China's stringent zero-COVID approach leaves Beijing with the question of how to walk back a major policy without threatening President Xi Jinping's credibility or risking a potentially deadly mass outbreak.

The government appears to be moving toward a phased exit, as a wave of nationwide demonstrations this week -- with some protesters even calling for Xi to step down -- has forced it to reconsider its approach.

In a meeting Thursday with European Council President Charles Michel, Xi chalked up the protests to students dealing with three years' worth of pandemic-related stress, according to a senior European Union official.

Although the Chinese leader made no direct comments about a shift on the zero-COVID policy shift, the official sensed that he was inclined to start easing up.

Similarly, Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, who heads the country's coronavirus response, said Wednesday that "China is facing a new situation and new tasks." She made no mention of the "dynamic zero-COVID policy," the usual term for China's campaign to completely stamp out the virus.

Some localities are starting to take action. Guangzhou on Thursday lifted a ban on indoor dining across most of the city. Many restaurants in the heart of the city reopened that day, and traffic on the roads picked up noticeably. PCR testing requirements to enter many buildings in central Guangzhou were scrapped, and most testing sites were dismantled.

In Beijing, many shopping malls announced reopenings Thursday. The inland city of Chongqing on Friday allowed people outside high-risk areas to go out and even shop at supermarkets without needing a negative COVID-19 test.

But scrapping the zero-COVID policy entirely would carry serious risks of its own.

The British health data analytics group Airfinity estimates that "between 1.3 and 2.1 million lives could be at risk if China lifts its zero-COVID policy," in a report released Monday. The Chinese government said in April that 2 million people would die if the zero-COVID policies were relaxed.

Low vaccination rates and the relative weakness of the homegrown vaccines China has insisted on using are a key factor. A study in Hong Kong released in July found that two doses of the Sinovac vaccine were only about 70% effective at preventing serious illness or death for adults aged 60 or older, compared with 86% for the Pfizer-BioNTech shot.

According to China's National Health Commission, the Sinovac vaccine is 86% effective for people aged 60 and older, and 66% for those 80 and up, lower than others on the market.

The government has adhered to zero-COVID based on the experiences in the early phase of the pandemic. Back then, officials had managed to keep down the number of dead through harsh quarantine measures while maintaining positive economic growth.

The omicron waves upended the calculus. This spring, officials put China's economic capital of Shanghai on lockdown for about two months. As of Monday, 530 million people in 68 cities have been subject to lockdowns or controls on movement, according to an estimate by Nomura International (Hong Kong).

China's unemployment rate has climbed and personal consumption has chilled. The International Monetary Fund in October downgraded China's projected economic growth this year to 3.2%.

As for the exit strategy, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities predicts China will adopt a two-step relaxation of zero-COVID -- the first at the end of December and the next at the end of March.

Under this scenario, officials will step up vaccination of the elderly and put in place additional health care infrastructure in rural areas. Quarantine periods for international arrivals would be shortened in two stages, until it is eliminated altogether in early spring.

People should not expect any dramatic changes in the short term since policy adjustments affect political prestige, according to SMBC Nikko Securities. The Japanese brokerage predicts Chinese officials will look to gradually soften their approach while still waving the zero-COVID banner.

Nikkei Asia